Coaching in the National Football League is not for the feint of heart.
Sure, the money is really good — even great in some cases, and the prestige that comes with coaching in the NFL is unmatched. But at the same time, the job comes with more pressure to perform than practically any other profession.
On top of having to work crazy hours (20-hour days occur regularly during the season), it’s also not uncommon to see coaches get fired after only one season on the job. In fact, the old adage, “if it were easy, everyone would do it,” may not be more applicable to any other line of work.
With that being said, there comes a point in every NFL season where coaches can start to feel their respective seats start to warm up. We’ve officially reached that point in the 2019 campaign.
I’ve broken down all 32 NFL head coaches into four tiers based on the “hotness” of their seat.
Here’s how I see it.
Tier 3 – Safer than a vault at a Las Vegas casino
32. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
31. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
30. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
29. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
28. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
27. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
26. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
25. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
24. Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles
23. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
22. Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders
21. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
These coaches are the cream of the current NFL crop. Barring a major surprise (such as Mike Tomlin being traded, yes traded), they will all be back with their respective teams in 2020.
Tier 2 – Likely safe barring an embarrassing late-season collapse
19. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
18. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
17. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16. Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
15. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
14. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers
13. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
12. Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos
11. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
10. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions
9. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins
8. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
Jason Garrett’s job security is going to be a hot topic of conversation for the remainder of the 2019 season, despite owner Jerry Jones repeatedly shooting down the idea that he will be looking to make a change if the Cowboys miss the playoffs. My guess: Garrett will be back in 2020.
The 2019 season has been a massive disappointment for the Chicago Bears. Still, I see a front office shake-up or quarterback change more likely to happen than a (head) coaching change.
The Broncos simply cannot make another coaching change, as it would put them on their fourth head coach in five years, while it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals parting ways with Kliff Kingsbury after one season when they just took Kyler Murray No. 1 overall in the 2019 Draft.
Likewise, it’s hard to envision the Dolphins canning Brian Flores after one season when they decided to strip the roster down and start their rebuilding process.
Tier 1 – The heat is on; might be time to update the resume
7. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
4. Pat Shurmur, New York Giants
3. Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
2. Adam Gase, New York Jets
1. Bill Callahan, Washington Redskins
Every coach in this tier will be coaching to save his job from here on out.
Doug Marrone technically still has a shot at guiding his team to the postseason, making him the most likely candidate in this group to save his job.
Zac Taylor simply wasn’t ready to be a NFL head coach. His only saving grace may be the fact that the Bengals front office is notoriously cheap and may not want to buy out his contract.
Like Taylor, Freddie Kitchens is in over his head in Cleveland. His play-calling has been suspect, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has struggled in his sophomore season. The Browns will need to close out strong for Kitchens to keep his job.
The Giants may be young, but when you fail to perform in New York, you subject yourself to a lot of scrutiny. The Giants’ Week 10 loss to the cross-town Jets didn’t help Shurmur’s case.
Quinn was reportedly coaching for his job in Week 10. His team responded with their best game of the season (a 26-9 road win over the Saints). There is still some hope for Quinn, but it’s hard to see him back in Atlanta in 2020.
He hasn’t been on the job for a full season, yet Adam Gase is already one of the most hated men in New York. Enough said.
Bill Callahan is serving as the interim head coach for the Redskins after Jay Gruden was fired early in the season. Washington’s front office is calling Callahan a legitimate candidate for the full-time job, but we should all know better than to believe that.
