November 28, 2021 By: Mark Knudson

Perfect fits are rarely perfect — especially with college football coaches

A warning to Florida State Seminoles fans: You know that perfect head coaching fit you find yourself staring at out on the horizon? It most likely wouldn’t be as perfect as you think it will.

This is the strangest of college football seasons, and that’s saying something. Coming on the heels of a pandemic-marred season that was part exercise and part exhibition, it was obviously too much to expect anything “normal,” in 2021, right?

There have been a ton of crazy upsets – not quite like the legendary 2007 season, but way more than usual. And when the dust settles, we may actually have some fresh faces playing for the big prize, which is refreshing. But what makes this season most bizarre is the unlucky number 13 – as in 13 FBS head coaches getting fired (or “resigning” wink wink) during the season.

It’s a number never seen before.

“It’s all driven by fear and panic,” said former longtime USC assistant coach John Baxter. “Looking at coaches getting $100 million contracts or close to that. That’s fear and panic. Looking at firing coaches in mid-season so we can have a new coach in place for recruiting. That’s fear and panic.”

At the time of their hirings, many of these guys were touted as “perfect fits” at their schools. A couple years later…not so much.

Several of the head coaches let go already had not yet been on the job for five full seasons. Many were burdened by heightened expectations that came with the gig before they even sat down at their new desks. In the case of fired Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen – a former Urban Meyer assistant at UF who appeared to be the perfect fit for the gig in Gainesville when he was hired before the 2018 season – going 34-15 over almost four seasons while playing in the SEC still wasn’t good enough.

Justin Fuentes had Virginia Tech bowl eligible this season before he got canned. His record for the Hokies was 43-31 in five plus years.

Gary Patterson was 181-79 – the winningest coach in school history – at TCU in 22 seasons, including winning the Rose Bowl. There should be a statue of him on the school’s campus.

Of course there’s Coach O, Ed Orgeron, who won the national championship just two seasons ago at LSU. He was dismissed in October while his team was 4-3 but finished the season. He won his last game over Texas A&M and departs Baton Rouge with a record of 51-20.

These are going to be tough acts to follow.

This year’s offseason coaching carousel will be something to behold.

On the flip side, there are too few examples of Athletic Directors having the patience and forethought to stick with their coaching choice even if he hasn’t met those sky high expectations right out of the gate. Example: Jim Harbaugh was seen as the perfect guy back in 2015 to return to the place he played quarterback and lead Michigan back to the top of the Big 10 mountain pretty much immediately. But the former Wolverine QB lost his first five games to rival Ohio State and didn’t fare much better against in-state rival Michigan State. During last year’s COVID-wrecked “season” Michigan was 2-4 and Harbaugh seat was on rapidly melting ice.

However, the Michigan brass stayed the course. They restructured Harbaugh’s contract and set out to make this year different. And they did. After finally beating the Buckeyes, Harbaugh’s team is playing for the Big Ten title and a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Then there’s Nebraska, where national championship winning QB Scott Frost, fresh off leading Central Florida to an unbeaten season, returned home in 2018 and was going to instantly lead the Cornhuskers back to their glory days. Instead, Frost’s teams have lost a lot more than they’ve won, and while they’ve been very competitive, moral victories at a place used to winning big just doesn’t cut it. Setting an NCAA record for the most single-digit losses in one season isn’t something Husker fans are celebrating.

So it would have fit the narrative for this insane season if Frost had been fired. Instead, like Harbaugh, he agreed to restructure his contract and his coaching staff in an effort to right the ship. Perhaps Nebraska Athletic Director Trev Alberts saw the coaching carousel getting ready to start spinning into hyperdrive and decided that Frost – with a revamped coaching staff – was a better option than any of the guys about to hit the market. Starting over isn’t always the best remedy.

The question is, will schools like Texas also follow the Michigan model and stay the course, even if it gets painful before it gets better? Or will they cut bait with Steve Sarkisian, who had a rough first year, and go back into hiring mode for the fourth time in less than a decade?

Perhaps there’s no such thing as a perfect fit. You know who wasn’t trumpeted at a perfect fit? Matt Campbell at Iowa State. PJ Fleck at Minnesota. Luke Fickell at Cincinnati.

They were just the guys those school’s respective AD’s felt were the best guys for the job at that moment. When they were hired, they didn’t drag along with them ridiculous expectations of immediate turnarounds and multiple automatic championships. They were given time to grow their respective programs. That patience has paid off.

Which brings us back to Florida State, where they do NOT currently have a head coach opening. But as soon as Mike Norvell’s team lost to Jacksonville State and began this season at 0-2, the Seminole fan base began to beat the drum for former ‘Noles great Deion Sanders, the current head coach at Jackson State. Neon Deion remains a relative newcomer to the coaching ranks, but that has not stopped the speculation that he would be the savior of FSU football sooner rather than later.

It will be interesting to see what FSU Athletic Director David Coburn does next. Norvell’s team failed to reach bowl eligibility, losing to coach-less rival Florida in their season finale. Will Coburn – in only this third year on the job – look at the coaching landscape and think about how those “perfect fits”…weren’t? Or will the fan base clamoring for the return of one of the school’s all-time best players-turned-head coach be too much to ignore?

Cooler heads may come to realize that Harbaugh is proving that patience is worth it.

Sometimes even with a so-called perfect fit, a few alterations can be all that’s needed.