July 1, 2024 By: Mark Knudson

Can Paul Skenes avoid the Tommy John plague?

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Paul Skenes has taken Major League Baseball by storm.

The Pittsburgh Pirates rookie pitcher has exploded out of the gate, going 4-0 with a nice 2.06 ERA and 70 strikeouts with just 10 walks in his first nine big league starts. Any way you slice it, Skenes has been outstanding and his future looks incredibly bright.

Then again, is the future that bright for any young MLB pitcher these days?

The game of baseball – from the youth leagues to the show – is dealing with an epidemic. Or maybe it’s a pandemic. Call it what you want, but it’s bad. Really bad.

The Pirates know all this. That’s why Skenes was pulled from his second big league start against the Chicago Cubs after throwing six no-hit innings. His 100th pitch of the day clocked in at 100mph.

Caution is needed. Teams like the Pirates only know so much about a pitcher’s past history. They know that this “virus” attacks the very young first. The average age for “Tommy John” elbow ligament replacement surgery is now right around 15-years-old. Think about that. Children. They do so much pitching in the name of earning that T-Shirt for their win-at-all-costs travel team coach that they’re going under the knife in staggering numbers and perhaps wrecking their chances of even playing baseball in high school.

It’s horrifically sad.

Sadder still are parents and coaches who simply accept surgery as a necessary step in the development of their young meal ticket. “He’ll come back even stronger,” is a common refrain.

Of course that’s complete b#^^$*%t. Modern medicine is fantastic, but any time the human body is cut open once, it’s never going to be better than it was before it was violated. Nonetheless, the baseball-for-profit crowd has no trouble tossing little Johnny out on the mound three times in four days in the name of winning that meaningless tournament.

This overuse/abuse has a ripple effect that we’ve been witnessing at the professional level.

Shohei Othani, Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan. All top ten MLB hurlers out with elbow injuries. Shoulder problems have sidelined Clayton Kershaw and Brandon Woodruff. Walker Buehler is trying to come back from his second TJ surgery. So is Justin Verlander. They’ll all keep chucking until that re-rebuilt elbow ligament blows out again.

MLB clubs are more than well aware of all this. It’s not just a problem with the big league teams, either. Many are having their best young pitching prospects get sidelined by surgery, too. But what can they do about it?

Maybe luck has to play a role? Skenes, last year’s first overall draft pick, has thus far avoided the plague. He played multiple positions as a young player – even in his first two college seasons at the Air Force Academy – and probably didn’t throw as many pitches at a young age as some of his contemporaries. Regardless, the challenge for the e He Pirates is to do what other teams haven’t been able to do so far, namely keep their star pitcher healthy.

“They are pushing him back after throwing 100 pitches in his last start,” said Colorado Rockies Manager Bud Black during the Pirates recent visit to Coors Field, where a scheduled Skenes start was pushed back, causing him to miss pitching at high altitude. “That’s part of it. I think you just need to be acutely aware of how he’s feeling, right? The pitcher has to be honest with the coaches and trainers.”

But everyone in the game knows that that type of honesty will only go so far.

“There’s no doubt that the velocities, the ‘spin’…what they are trying to do with the ball now at young ages…their health is being compromised so young, way more than what we did,” Black – a former MLB pitcher – continued. “We all threw the ball as hard as we could…just not every pitch. I was more concerned with proper spin than like ‘max’ spin. I think the ‘max’ part of this is the problem, when you get right down to it.

“People ask me one thing (that’s the root cause of the epidemic of arm injuries) it’s the maximum effort to create velocity and spin.”

Skenes has plenty of both, but has so far avoided the operating table. The Pirates are being extra, ultra-cautious with their young star to this point in an attempt to keep him in the rotation and off the injured list.

Is there hope?

So far, so good.

Perhaps there isn’t the mileage on Skenes golden arm that there is on someone like Strider, who underwent his first TJ surgery while pitching for Clemson. You can only imagine the amount of pitches he threw before becoming a Tiger.

If the Pirates are successful in keeping their prized pitching prospect healthy and available, you can bet other teams will start looking for young arms with fewer miles on them as children.