College basketball: Top-10 contenders; Final Four and National Champion predictions

It’s December, and I am excited about all the college basketball teams that can go all the way.  There are at least one or two, usually more, squads that pique my interest.  

Usually.  

What a difference a year makes.  After celebrating one of those milestone birthdays, am I a curmudgeon?  Are there are no exciting teams, just polarizing talent, this year?  This makes picking a Final Four and Champion far more difficult than hearing Dick Vitale with the TV sound off.  

It wasn’t difficult to see North Carolina coming in 2016, when they lost on a buzzer beater, and again when they won in 2017; or to identify the championship caliber veterans returning for Villanova in 2018.  

Last year I wrote, “it’s the point guard stupid.” After going over lots of contenders, I went the upset route with Nevada, who never got their natural PG, Lindsay Drew, onto the court with the Martin twins.  

This year (paraphrasing to the tune of the Sondheim classic) we sing, “Send in the wings, there’s got to be wings…well maybe next year.” 

Here’s ten teams that can make the Final Four.  We start with four traditional powers that everyone agrees are capable of making the Final Four, and going on a run to win it all.

Kansas

The experienced Jayhawks feature three mobile bigs. Seven-footer Udoka Azubuike is back for his senior year with a vengeance, and I see David McCormack taking a big step while Silvio De Sousa scrapes off rust.  The necessary point guard is sophomore star-in-the-making Devon Dotson, who scores, but other than feed the post who does he throw to?  

I don’t like the Jayhawks’ roster balance. Who supplies the outside scoring?  On the wing Marcus Garrett plays D, and provides aggressive toughness.  Ochai Agbaji (31% from 3 last year) and the bench are the hope here. 

Duke’s D shut them down. But don’t let the opener fool you.  If they don’t commit 28 TOs they beat Duke easily, that won’t happen again.

Duke 

Talented but young again. They are led by Tre Jones, returning at the point, to get it inside to frosh center Vernon Carey. A skilled unselfish ultra-defender, Jones is not the take-charge creator, and certainly not a weapon like his brother, Tyus, who won a national title feeding Jahlil Okafor inside and took games over when needed. 

The Blue Devils’ maturity resides with the less talented role players on the bench.  Coach K will live longer coaching these stars because they will play D and go as far as it takes them, but in the end, they are young.  

Kentucky 

Rich as thoroughbred horse owners, the Wildcats have three guards who can run the point. Ashton Hagans is a great defender, and a winning point guard who proved better in that role than Immanuel Quickley. The key to this team, however, is a freshman scoring machine, Tyrese Maxey.  In high school and again in his first collegiate game, beating Michigan St., I see he disappears without the ball in his hands. 

Calipari’s dilemma, and never his strong suit, is running an offense, this time with three point guards. Capitalizing on the defense Calipari teams play by tourney time, a turned loose Maxey will lift this team beyond the unproven wings and workmanlike, veteran size (Sestina, Richards, Montgomery) — provided Calipari utilizes Maxey properly.  

Michigan State 

Most everyone’s favorite, the Spartans have the most experience, boasting an unparalleled senior leader in point guard Cassius Winston, and a physical and athletic presence inside in junior Xavier Tillman.  Like Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke, they don’t have wings with talent to match UNLESS Joshua Langford returns from aggravating the foot injury that cost him the last 26 games last year.  With Langford they have the best, most balanced roster. 

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I feel inclined to look for a champion from these six teams who can make the Final Four.

Maryland 

The Terrapins join the crowd with a strong Point-to-Postmen skeleton that they flesh out with four returning starters. Stretch-four Jalen Smith and Mr. Outside point guard Anthony Cowan are joined by returning 40% three point shooters Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, and defender Darryl Morsell.  Yet, we’ve wondered why this team didn’t finish better than fifth in the Big Ten last year when they had future Atlanta Hawks center Bruno Fernando, who must be replaced. What’s missing?

Florida 

The Gators now have two players who can take over a game.  Even better it’s the point-post tandem created by adding transfer Kerry Blackshear inside as a target for sophomore point guard Andrew Nembhard.  Live frosh defender, wing Scotty Lewis is one most fun players and exciting players to watch run and jump.  Can the other sophomores — Noah Locke and Keyontae Johnson — provide top quality support?

Louisville  

We think everyone’s favorite under-rated coach Chris Mack, and star Jordan Nwora, have enough talent in this upper-class heavy team to raise the Cardinals from last year’s first round loss to the Final Four this year.  Watching Virginia rise from annual disappointment to a title last year, what prognosticator doesn’t covet veterans? I am not sure I am as impressed with the cast around Nwora as everyone else seems to be.

Memphis  

When NCAA embroiled James Wiseman, a dominant center, and probably the first pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, returns to the Tigers to pair up with live wire fellow frosh, 6-9 Precious Achiuwa, they can become the most dynamic frontcourt in college basketball. But who is going to steady and lead the four (or more) freshman starters for the headless Tigers?  

Villanova

Veterans Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, and sophomore Saddiq Bey are surrounded by talented, athletic new recruits led by prolific inside-out prospect Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, plus Justin Moore and Bryan Antoine.  We know by March Jay Wright will have them flying around playing the aggressive D that makes for another potential Wildcat championship run.

Seton Hall 

Scoring guard Myles Powell, can do everything on the court.  He can create from either guard spot, and is the kind of star that carries teams deep into the tournament.  Likewise the Pirates’ big frontline of 6-10 Sandro Mamukelashvili, and 7-2 shot blocking centers Romaro Gill and Ike Obiagu, will suffocate and remove tourney opponents trying to score inside.  Primitive artist Obiagu is the wild card here. If he gets control of that body and scores too, look out.  

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I know what you are thinking.  

What about my team? 

Well, the answer is NO:

Virginia 

The defending champion has size and plays D. I’m not a believer in Kihei Clark as a premier PG, and they can’t replace last year’s scoring that took them from March disappointments to their first title. 

Gonzaga

A nice team, the reloaded Zags haven’t replaced the rare quality of Hachimura, Clark, Norvell and even Perkins.

North Carolina 

Electric Cole Anthony is a dominant scoring point guard, but even Roy Williams’ coaching can’t mold this unusual dearth of topline Tar Heels talent into a Final Four statuette. 

Colorado 

Only if forward Tyler Bey emerges as the dominant All American that Basketball Times is calling him can these five returning starters, and fully healthy All-Pac 12 point guard McKinley Wright lead this deep squad with size to their first Final Four since 1955. 

Utah St. 

As Mountain West champs, the Aggies can make a sweet 16 run with shooting guard Sam Merrill, and Neemias Queeta inside. But then fall short. 

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Who can…go…all…the…way?  

Kansas, Duke, Michigan State and Kentucky, the traditional power schools we identified at the top can take home the trophy.  I also think Maryland might grow from here to there. 

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My Final Four:

Kansas 

This veteran team presents big matchup problems inside.  If we look to the supporting casts, and this year wings are the issue, here’s a vote for the toughness of Marcus Garrett. 

Kentucky 

Unlike too many cooks, I think the rarity of having three point guards will make a rich and unselfish broth of role players, supporting one dynamic Wildcats scorer, Tyrese Maxey.   

Maryland  

Amidst so many teams with talent up the middle, we like these returning Terrapin starters on the wing led by the toughness of Morsell on the wing. 

Villanova 

Just a guess here that this athletic Wildcats team will progress during the season to play with that Jay Wright intensity and flair. 

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The 2020 National Champion:

Kansas 

Never the best with One-and-Done players, this veteran Jayhawks roster is a Bill Self kind of team. Under NCAA scrutiny, led by the accused and embattled Self, who claims the NCAA has misunderstood the narrative, this team will bond and focus during a season played under aspersions about the program cast by a former Adidas representative who testified he paid the mother of Billy Preston, a player who never saw the court for the Jayhawks.  

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My Sleeper: Xavier 

Xavier is not really very sleepy.  With four returning starters, including PG Quentin Goodin and toughman inside Tyrique Jones, they could turn last season around make a run. 

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