As was the consensus expectation, four quarterbacks were claimed in the first round of the NFL draft Thursday night. Not only that, three went in the top six.
LSU’s Joe Burrow went first overall, to the Bengals.
Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa went fifth, to the Dolphins.
Oregon’s Justin Herbert went sixth, to the Chargers.
And Utah State’s Jordan Love went 26th to the Packers.
Green Bay traded up from 30th to get Love. That was a bit surprising, but Aaron Rodgers, after all, is 36 and not all QBs are going to match Tom Brady and Drew Brees’ longevity.
In Denver, the move immediately drew comparisons to when the Broncos drafted UCLA’s Tommy Maddox in 1992, angering John Elway and additionally poisoning his relationship with Dan Reeves, but the difference was Elway was about to turn “only” 32 before the next season.
Here’s the part I don’t get about quarterbacks.
You’d think it would be among the easiest positions to evaluate. The evidence is right in front of you. Prominently. Physical talent, mental aptitude, leadership skill.
Yet over the years, dating back a couple of NFL generations, the mistakes in rating quarterbacks are glaring and numerous. Both ways.
Patrick Mahomes, lasted until the 10th pick three years ago, going eight choices behind Mitchell Trubisky. Lamar Jackson was the fifth of five QBs to go in the first round two years ago, to the Ravens. And the more extreme examples involve top quarterbacks going later than the first. As in: Brady, Tom. I don’t know if you have ever heard this, but Brady went in the sixth round.
What were they thinking?
Actually, in most cases, they were thinking roughly the same thing as everyone else in what often is a herd mentality.
The draft is an inexact science at all positions. Yet I don’t as prominently remember the first-round tackles and cornerbacks who have been busts — or at least overvalued.
Perhaps I’m overreacting only because of the position’s visibility. The collegiate popularity of the spread and read-option complicated the evaluation process. But as more coaches move up the chain to the NFL, the differences have blurred.
Yes, there are many instances of single teams drastically overrating single quarterbacks as other teams shook their heads. The Bears did it with Trubisky, the Broncos did it with Paxton Lynch. Irony: John Elway’s failures at drafting quarterbacks involve selecting tall guys who looked the part, also including second-round pick Brock Osweiler.
But rather than single team misjudgments, I’m thinking of the first-round quarterbacks who went there as part of a consensus viewpoint playing out. Teams, media and draftniks of varying credibility usually — not always, but usually — have the quarterbacks similarly ranked.
Everyone had them rated about where they went.
I keep thinking back to 1998 and ’99, becase it ran the gamut.
In ’99, I traveled to Lexington to speak with the NFL draft’s projected No. 1 overall pick, Tim Couch, on the University of Kentucky campus. Then I drove 125 miles southeast, through the Daniel Boone National Forest, to his tiny hometown of Hyden (pop., 365). I visited Leslie County High School and other sites in his past, and talked to residents, to get a feel for his background.
As everyone else was doing, I portrayed Couch in my story as the correct choice as the top pick, as a can’t miss quarterback after his impressive stay in the testing Southeastern Conference.
I shrugged off the suggestion from someone close to me that Syracuse’s Donovan McNabb would be the better prospect and stuck with my storyline. Or even that Akili Smith, who might have been the best college QB among the three with an astounding senior year with the Oregon Ducks, also was worthy of consideration for the top pick.
I was impressed by Couch’s thougtfulness, convinced of his talent, and 100 percent into the small-town boy story.
The teaser on the cover of the April 14, 199 Sporting News, next to his picture in a Kentucky uniform, proclaimed: “Why TIM COUCH is a natural.”
McNabb went No. 2 to the Eagles and Smith No. 3 to the Bengals. They were destined to be the top three, regardless of exact order.
Couch was with the Browns for five seasons, making 59 starts and throwing for 11,131 yards, and the magnitude of his bust status has been exaggerated.
But he didn’t come close to living up to the No. 1 overall pick expectations. McNabb did. Smith didn’t.
The similarly touted top pick the year before was Tennessee’s Peyton Manning — after the Colts made the tough choice between him and Ryan Leaf. (That is no meant to be ironic. At the time, it was perfectly reasonable to argue for Leaf, a terrific college QB at Washington State who since has overcome personal demons, over Manning.)
The reason I picked out that two-year period of quarterbacks and the draft?
It’s illustrative of the inexactitude involved in rating NFL quarterback prospects … and that hasn’t changed in the past 20-plus years.
It shouldn’t be that hard. But it is. Again and again, quarterbacks touted as can’t miss talents are deemed likely busts before long. (Hello, Josh Rosen.) How can that be the case so quick? Another example farther back was when the Redskins in their 1994 training camp concluded they had drafted a good quarterback, but it was Gus Frerotte in the seventh round, not Heath Shuler (left) at No. 3 overall. Trent Dilfer went sixth, to the Buccaneers, in that same draft, and I also had chronicled Shuler and Dilfer’s pre-draft preparations and workouts in a Sporting News story.
Chances are, one of those four likely first rounders Thursday night is going to be a bust. The catch, of course, is definition of that term, and here’s mine: Whether they are what they were thought to be, what teams can minimally expect from a first-round pick. That’s a judgment, of course
Below my tagline are all the first-round quarterbacks, beginning with 1983. I bet you can guess why I went that far back, and why I stopped there. Six quarterbacks in the first round, including John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien … and Dan Marino.
I’ll leave it up to you to set the parameters and define the term.
But the number of busts — however you define it — is stunning.
About Terry: Terry Frei is the author of seven books. His novels are Olympic Affair and The Witch’s Season, and among his five non-fiction works are Horns, Hogs, and Nixon Coming; Third Down and a War to Go; and ’77: Denver, the Broncos, and a Coming of Age. Information is available on his web site, terryfrei.com. His woodypaige.com archive can be found here.
FIRST ROUND QUARTERBACK CHOICES
2019
1 — Kyler Murray, Cardinals
6 — Daniel Jones, Giants
15 — Dwayne Haskins, Redskins
2018
1 — Baker Mayfield, Browns
3 — Sam Darnold, Jets
7 — Josh Allen, Bills
10 — Josh Rosen, Cardinals
32 — Lamar Jackson, Ravens
2017
2 — Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
10 — Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
12 — Deshaun Watson, Texans
2016
1 — Jared Goff, Rams
2 — Carson Wentz, Eagles
26 — Paxton Lynch, Broncos
2015
1 — Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
2 — Marus Mariota, Titans
2014
3 — Blake Bortles, Jaguars
22 — Johnny Manziel, Browns
32 — Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
2013
16 — EJ Manuel, Bills
2012
1 — Andrew Luck, Colts
2 — Robert Griffin, Redskins
8 — Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
22 — Brandon Weeden, Browns
2011
1 — Cam Newton, Panthers
8 — Jake Locker, Titans
10 — Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
12 — Christian Ponder, Vikings
2010
1 — Sam Bradford, Rams
25 — Tim Tebow, Broncos
2009
1 — Matthew Stafford, Lions
5 — Mark Sanchez, Jets
17 — Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
2008
3 — Matt Ryan, Falcons
18 — Joe Flacco, Ravens
2007
1 — JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
22 — Brady Quinn, Browns
2006
3 — Vince Young, Titans
10 — Matt Leinart, Cardinals
11 — Jay Cutler, Broncos
2005
1 — Alex Smith, 49ers
24 — Aaron Rodgers, Packers
25 — Jason Campbell, Redskins
2004
1 — Eli Manning, Chargers
4 — Philip Rivers, Giants
11 — Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
22 — J.P. Losman, Bills
2003
1 — Carson Palmer, Bengals
7 — Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
19 — Kyle Boller, Ravens
22 — Rex Grossman, Bears
2002
1 — David Carr, Texans
3 — Joey Harrington, Lions
32 — Patrick Ramsey, Redskins
2001
1 — Michael Vick
2000
18 — Chad Pennington, Jets
1999
1 — Tim Couch, Browns
2 — Donovan McNabb, Eagles
3 — Akili Smith, Bengals
11 — Daunte Culpepper, Vikings
12 — Cade McNown, Bears
1998
1 — Peyton Manning, Colts
2 — Ryan Leaf, Chargers
1997
26 — Jim Druckenmiller, 49ers
1996
(None.)
1995
3 — Steve McNair, Oilers
5 — Kerry Collins, Panthers
1994
3 — Heath Shuler, Redskins
6 — Trent Dilfer, Buccaneers
1993
1 — Drew Bledsoe, Patriots
2 — Rick Mirer, Seahawks
1992
6 — David Klingler, Bengals
25 — Tommy Maddox, Broncos
1991
16 — Dan McGwire, Seahawks
24 — Todd Marinovich, Raiders
1990
1 — Jeff George, Colts
7 — Andre Ware, Lions
1989
1 — Troy Aikman, Cowboys
1988
(None.)
1987
1 — Vinny Testaverde, Buccaneers
6 — Kelly Stouffer, Cardinals
13 — Chris Miller, Falcons
26 — Jim Harbaugh, Bears
1986
3 — Jim Everett, Oilers
12 — Chuck Long, Lions
1985 and 1984.
(None.)
1983
1, John Elway, Colts
7, Todd Blackledge, Chiefs
14, Jim Kelly, Bills
15, Tony Eason, Patriots
24, Ken O’Brien, Jets
27, Dan Marino, Dolphins
