It didn’t take long — two weeks to be exact — for the Super Bowl 54 odds to undergo a major facelift.
Thanks to injuries to two Hall of Fame (and Super Bowl-winning) quarterbacks in Week 2, the betting odds on who win the Lombardi Trophy this coming February look drastically different than they did when the 2019 season kicked off in early September.
The New Orleans Saints lost the face of their franchise, Drew Brees, for at least six weeks to a thumb injury that required surgery; and the Pittsburgh Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger for the remainder of the 2019 season to an elbow injury.
The Saints, widely considered to be among the Super Bowl favorites entering the season, saw their championship odds slide from 8/1 to 20/1.
If they can manage to play .500 football without Brees, the Saints will still have an excellent chance at making a late postseason run (they are 1-1 right now).
With that being the case, their 20/1 number does offer significant value on the betting market.
The six games Brees will miss (if his recovery goes as planned) are as follows:
- @ Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- @ Chicago Bears
- Arizona Cardinals
Even without Brees under center, New Orleans is talented enough to go 3-3 (or better) in those games, keeping their Super Bowl hopes alive.
The prospects for the Steelers, on the other hand, don’t look quite as promising — despite their acquisition of talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
On top of having to navigate their way through the AFC, home to the top-two Super Bowl contenders this year according to Vegas, they will have to survive a vastly improved (thanks to the emergence of Lamar Jackson and the resurgence of the Cleveland Browns) AFC North division. All without Roethlisberger.
New starting quarterback Mason Rudolph may prove to be the heir apparent to Big Ben. But let’s be real, he’s not beating Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady on the road in January.
Pittsburgh opened the season at 14/1. Without Roethlisberger they slid all the way to 200/1.
200/1 may look enticing, but don’t waste your money. It’s not happening.
On the flip side, there’s also been a handful of teams whose Super Bowl odds have gotten noticeable better after two weeks.
The Dallas Cowboys (2-0) opened the season at 20/1 and are now going at 12/1; the Green Bay Packers (2-0), thanks to an improved defense, went from 16/1 to 12/1; the Seattle Seahawks (2-0) went from 30/1 to 20/1; and the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) went from 40/1 to 20/1.
Three teams have emerged as heavy Super Bowl 54 front-runners, and none of them come as a surprise.
Heading into Week 3, the following three teams have emerged as the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl 54.
Los Angeles Rams – 10/1
With the injury to Brees, the Rams now appear to have a (fairly) clear path to locking up homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs – 5/1
Mahomes looks as good as ever, and the Kansas City defense has improved. Will it be enough to knock off the Patriots in January, though? Time will tell.
New England Patriots – 3/1
Believe it or not, the 2019 Patriots may be the best team of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. That’s saying a lot. Don’t be shocked if Brady and Belichick win No. 7 this coming February.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook as of September 16, 2019.
