News that the College Football Playoff will be expanding to 12 teams by 2026 (at the latest) was welcomed by fans and followers of the sport from coast to coast – for all the good reasons spelled out numerous times before.
The impact the announcement could have on the disconcerting and never ending sage of conference realignment is an added bonus. Considering that this exact same proposal was on the table more than a year ago but was tabled, it’s safe to assume that the last two major realignment blockbusters – Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC and UCLA and USC to the Big Ten – prompted many of the decision makers to go back and rethink the pros and cons…and stemming the tide of realignment is seen as a very big pro.
Programs that may be considering – or even on the verge of – making a move to another conference can now step back, look at the bigger picture and decide if staying where they are is actually the better move.
Several schools face brand new questions such as, “Do the financial benefits of moving outweigh the legit chance to participate in a 12-team playoff?”
Moving to the Big Ten or the SEC would have major financial benefits for any school, no doubt. Those invites are almost impossible to turn down. But if it’s any other conference, and increased revenue is not the only objective…
Let’s take a Power Five program like the University of Colorado for example. After the news that the Pac 12 – CU’s home for the past decade – was losing its two marquee LA market programs to the Big Ten, the “Conference of Champions” was looking pretty fragile. Rumors began that CU might look at moving back to the Big 12, the conference the Buffs had called home for decades but had left in 2011, for (ironically) some stability. (The instability of the Big 12 at the time was a big factor in CU’s move west.) If the Pac 12 folded, a school like Colorado didn’t want to be left homeless.
Then came the CFP announcement, which will undoubtedly fortify the Pac 12’s long term future. Now, going back to the Big 12 would be nothing more than a lateral move, competitively and financially. So unless they get invited to join the Big Ten, it certainly appears that CU would be best served to stay put…providing the Pac 12 can find replacements for UCLA and USC.
However, doing that might not be as much of an easy slam dunk as it was before.
Before the announcement, it would have made perfect sense for Mountain West conference teams like San Diego State and Boise State – who have both been on the national radar in recent seasons – to leap at the chance to move on up.
Money-wise, it would be huge for both those schools to get into a Power Five conference. But now, staying in a Group of Five conference would give schools like BSU and SDSU a much better opportunity to qualify to be part of the expanded playoff.
The new deal is crystal clear: The six highest ranked conference champions, regardless of P5 or G5 status, will get automatic bids to the playoff.
How much is that worth?
Is guaranteed media rights revenue more important than the chance to participate in the CFP? Both the Broncos and the Aztecs will have a better chance at winning the MW than the Pac 12.
And what about those media rights dollars?
Could the enormous gap between what Power Five programs receive each year and what goes into the coffers of Group of Five schools actually shrink a bit?
Nothing is going to challenge the Big Ten and SEC money, but as far as yearly income for the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12? Think about it: If the Mountain West teams are suddenly also playing for a chance to be part of the CFP, then couldn’t they conceivably demand more dollars from media rights partners?
This game of high stakes chess will undoubtedly play out over the next year or so. In the meantime, schools that aren’t being invited to join the Big Ten or SEC are probably best served by putting all other callers on hold, at least until the next blockbuster announcement.
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