November 16, 2023 By: Mark Knudson

Realignment trickle down dollars could reshape Mountain West and others

They keep moving the goalposts, but so far, both Oregon State and Washington State have stayed one step ahead.

And now, the future of the Pac 12-turned-2 Conference has a pretty good chance to rebuild on the fly and remain a solid conference in full partnership with the College Football Playoff down the road. (How far that road goes is anyone’s guess of course.)

This is great news not only for OSU and WSU – two programs on the uptick who have weathered a storm that was not of their own making and have earned every bit of good that’s coming their way – but for many programs outside the biggest conferences that have been waiting patiently for their chance to be invited to a bigger party.

That invite could be in the mail in the near future.

A recent court decision (and as we know, court decisions are never really final until the US Supreme Court says they are) has put OSU and WSU in charge of all conference decisions. That means control of their own future on the playing fields, and more importantly off them. With literally millions of dollars at stake, they went to court and won the right to make all the definitive calls for the conference that still has two years after this one where it can function as a two-team league under NCAA guidelines.

Most importantly, they get to decide how the distribution of conference revenue is handled moving forward.

Negotiations on the financial details will undoubtedly continue, but all signs point to “The Two who remain” gaining control of as much as $400 million in incoming conference revenue. While the 10 current/departing members of the Pac 12 will certainly be able to lay legitimate claim to some of this school year’s revenue, The Two will reportedly use some of that money to compensate Mountain West conference programs for creating a scheduling alliance. That means some of this year’s CFP money could potentially end up in the pockets of the MW schools a year earlier than planned. (A full merger immediately after this season isn’t going to happen because all 12 MW teams have a $34 mil buy-out attached to them at the moment.)

The only negative is that the College Football Playoff folks threw everyone a curveball. They changed the rules to make it mandatory for any conference hoping to gain one of those six automatic “conference champions” bids to the 12-team playoff have at least eight members. So any 12-team playoff bids for The Two will be of the “at large” variety for the next two season. They changed it to five conference champions and seven at-large bids.

That’s how it will be for the next two seasons, but after that, a full-on merger with the Mountain West conference – as previously suggested by some – is looking likely. The only question is which teams, if not all 12, will get that invite.

Some reports say that any 2025 merger will have to include all 12 MW teams, making the Pac 2 the Pac 14. Others have suggested that a better plan would be to take just half – six Mountain West schools – at the outset. Those would likely be Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and UNLV for reasons that include market size and other resources. This would create a smaller conference, but one that could expand later.

If the former happens, the Pac 14 could certainly claim “power” status, given the success of many of the programs involved. If a smaller expansion plan becomes the reality, could the new Pac perhaps entice programs like Stanford and Cal – who were foolish to leave in the first place – to return to right…err, left coast?

And what then would a rebuilt Mountain West look like? They’d be in need of six new members at least. Would former Western Athletic Conference football-playing members like UTEP and New Mexico State be viable? Would up-and-coming programs like UTSA get a look? Or would powerful FCS programs like North Dakota State and Montana earn a promotion to FBS status? Perhaps some combination of all of those?

However it’s worked out, the idea that the enormous payout from this year’s CFP (and March Madness) could actually trickle down to the Mountain West in a meaningful way is pretty cool.

Then there’s the (crazy?) idea of a European soccer-style “relegation” arrangement between leagues. It’s been thrown around by many, and if adopted, would be the first of its kind and most certainly would become a unique drawing card. It would instantly build new national interest in west coast college football. Maybe a new media rights deal for that kind of conference arrangement would be attractive enough to earn the member schools another nice payday?

Finally, multiple scenarios that are win-win for more than just those at the very top.