Super Bowl LV odds shift following Tom Brady free agency decision

The 2020 NFL offseason has offered sports fan a mild reprieve from the ongoing national crisis caused by the Corona virus outbreak.

For some people, the optimism brought on by their favorite team’s offseason acquisitions has served as a distraction during an otherwise stressful time. For others, simply having the NFL in the news again offered a sense of normalcy.

Thus far, 127 unrestricted free agents have changed teams this offseason.

We are now up to 127 unrestricted free agents who have moved to different teams. An amazing pace.
— John Clayton (@JohnClaytonNFL) March 24, 2020

That number gets even bigger when you factor in trades (there have been several).

In an offseason full of player movement, there wasn’t a bigger story than four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots after 20 seasons to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Despite the fact that he will be 43-years-old when the 2020 season kicks off, Brady’s decision to join the Buccaneers sent a ripple effect through the league. The most obvious example of this at this point in time is the drastic shifts in the odds to win Super Bowl LV.

Let’s start with the Patriots.

Leading up to free agency (when Brady was still expected to re-sign with the Pats), New England was sitting at +1800 (18/1). When the Brady news became official, the Patriots’ odds moved to +2500.

It wasn’t a massive shift, but it was definitely significant. And if we’re being completely honest, the oddsmakers are likely being a little to kind to the Patriots — possibly due to Bill Belichick’s unmatched track record.

The Buccaneers are a whole other story.

Adding Brady to the mix catapulted Tampa Bay from the +5000 to +6500 range all the way to +1600, giving them the third best odds at winning Super Bowl LV among NFC teams.

In my opinion, it may have been a slight overreaction by the oddsmakers, as the Buccaneers still have several holes to fill in their roster and, while still very effective, Brady is no longer the same player he was five or six years ago.

A more likely explanation for such a drastic shift is that BetOnline’s bookmakers are simply trying to manage their long-term liability on the Buccaneers, while also planning on additional veterans signing on to title chase with Brady in Tampa Bay.

Super Bowl LV is still about 10 months away (assuming the COVID-19 outbreak doesn’t delay the start of the 2020 NFL season). A lot can and will happen from now until then that will cause these odds to change even more. But for now, this much we know: Brady’s presence is enough to make any team a title contender in the eyes of the wise guys.

Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag as of March 24, 2020.