When Iowa placekicker Keith Duncan split the uprights with the clock expiring in Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium on Black Friday, it meant that a preseason Top-25 team – the Cornhuskers – would be staying home for bowl season for the third year in a row.
It was another huge disappointment for Husker fans.
But Nebraska – ranked No. 24 in the ESPN Coaches Poll prior to the season – wasn’t the only college football team to end the year having failed to meet some lofty summertime expectations.
To be fair, pre-season polls are really an exercise in futility. They’re guesswork, nothing more.
Unlike their professional counterparts, each college football team is markedly different from its predecessor. As much as one-fourth – and arguably the most important fourth – of each team’s roster turns over every year. On occasion, that’s for the good, but there’s certainly no way to know that ahead of time. All we can do when we look ahead at the upcoming college football season is guess how it will turn out.
No one would have guessed that Alabama would miss the College Football Playoff for the first time ever this season. The prognosticators thought it would be the second-ranked Crimson Tide meeting top-ranked Clemson one more time for the sport’s biggest prize. Instead, ‘Bama will be on the outside looking in this January.
While it’s hard to classify a 10-2 season as being “disappointing” for most of us, try telling that to an Alabama fan right about now.
Failing to live up to your pre-season ranking doesn’t always mean your team didn’t play well. Some things are out of a team’s control – like who they play.
Take pre-season No. 12 Texas A&M for example.
Yes, the Aggies finished a disappointing 7-5 and will end up in a minor bowl game. But if you look a little closer, Texas A&M’s five losses this season were to Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia and LSU. Three of those team spent time ranked No. 1 this season, and as of this writing, three of them still have a chance to win the National Championship.
A&M played a tougher schedule this season than the New England Patriots. Disappointment needs to be tempered with reality in College Station.
Elsewhere, it’s fair to say those pre-season expectations may have been a little out of line.
Nebraska, for instance, started what was dangerously close to a junior varsity squad most of the year, with 11 freshman and sophomores in the regular starting lineup. They ended up losing three games on the final play and another one in the final minutes. A more seasoned team may have been able to reach seven or eight wins, but not a group that was this wet behind the ears.
Syracuse was another team, like Nebraska, that was over-hyped due to hope, not substance. After the Orange were blitzed 63-20 by Maryland early (and the Terps turned out to be a less than stellar outfit) and the bloom fell off the rose, Syracuse proved to be what they’ve been in the past, a decent (7-5) team that finished in the middle of the ACC pack. Again.
A couple other squads that are typically part of the rankings suffered unexplainable tumbles this season. Stanford was No. 25 going in, but regressed to 4-8 in what is David Shaw’s worst season as the Cardinal’s head coach. After a 1-3 start, they had a mid-season rally before losing their final four games. Known for having great tailbacks, the Cardinal’s leading rusher for the season gained just 840 yards. Not a typical Shaw team by any measure.
Few expected preseason No. 18 Michigan State to have so many problems. They were considered slightly better than Wisconsin (preseason No. 19) going in, but the Badgers battered them 38-0. It got so bad that renowned Head Coach Mark Dantonio was rumored to be on the hot seat. A last second field goal was needed to beat a Maryland team (which finished 1-8 in Big 10 play) to salvage bowl eligibility for the 6-6 Spartans.
Mike Leach’s Washington State team (preseason No. 23) was fun to watch as usual, but the Cougars never could live up to their ranking. Remember, this team blew a 32-point second half lead before falling to UCLA 67-63 — in football. They finished the year losing their 7th straight “Apple Cup” game to rival Washington to finish 6-6, and just 3-6 in the Pac 12.
And speaking of the Huskies, the pre-season No. 13 ranked team was one of the biggest disappointments of the season themselves. Thought to be a playoff contender before the season, Washington stumbled to a 4-5 mark in Pac-12 play and finished just 7-5 overall. Head Coach Chris Peterson stepped down after the season, pointing at the stress of the season and saying he needed a chance to “recharge.”
But the prize for the biggest disappointment in college football this season ends up in Austin, Texas, were the preseason Top-10 ranked Texas Longhorns appeared primed for a Big 12 title run and a shot at the College Football Playoff in Tom Herman’s third season as Head Coach. Instead, they slipped to 7-5 themselves.
Three of the losses are explainable, coming against top-ranked LSU and conference title game participants Oklahoma and Baylor. All three are currently ranked in the Top-10. If UT was 9-3 having just lost to those three, there would still be a level of disappointment, sure, but there would still be momentum (and pre-season hype) going into next season.
However, after also dropping conference games to TCU and Iowa State – while playing some really bad defense – it’s clear that things aren’t necessarily moving forward. Herman has decided to replace both his coordinators – often seen as a desperate move made by a coach who is in trouble himself.
Going into next season, the Horns won’t be quite so hyped. And Herman will be sitting very squarely on the hot seat.
Listen to Mark Knudson on Monday’s at 12:30 with Brady Hull on AM 1310 KFKA and on Saturday mornings on “Klahr and Kompany” on AM 1600 ESPN Denver.
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