November 6, 2022 By: Mark Knudson

College Football Playoff heading towards a Super Conference Preview

It’s highly unlikely we see Alabama and/or Clemson in this season’s College Football Playoff. That’s a very good thing for the sport.

Since the CFP’s inception at the end of the 2014 season, the Crimson Tide and Tigers have been regular participants, with Alabama playing in seven of the eight playoffs, Clemson six. It’s simply been too much of a good thing. They’ve worn out their welcome.

That doesn’t mean this year’s culminating event won’t look fairly similar to past ones…and it’s also likely to provide an immediate preview of what’s to come.

Some would put the unbeaten, top-ranked and defending champion Georgia Bulldogs on that “too much” list, too…even though when they get this season’s invite it will only be their third ever. After their win over previously unbeaten Tennessee, you can put the Bulldogs down for one spot…in ink.

Question is, who will be the other three most likely participants to fill out this year’s foursome?

Despite their loss to Georgia, Tennessee should get in if they don’t lose again (they play Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.) Assuming Georgia is the Eastern Division rep in the SEC title game and the Volunteers win out, they’ll sit out Championship weekend and wait to see where the playoff committee sends them. An 11-1 SEC team with wins over LSU and Alabama is pretty much a lock as well.

That means we’re going to get two SEC teams in the final four again. (At least one will be wearing a different color.)

What about the other two spots? We could end up with an unbeaten Big 12 champion in TCU. Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State have stumbled badly, meaning the Horned Frogs strength of schedule isn’t there, even if they come out unscathed. But unbeaten is unbeaten, and there can only be three – at most – still standing on December 4^th.

Then there’s the case for a one-loss Pac 12 champ in Oregon, USC or UCLA. If one of those teams emerges with just a single defeat – and in Oregon’s case their only loss would also be to Georgia – they’d be a very worthy participant.

Question: Would the committee select a one-loss Tennessee team that didn’t win it’s conference over a one-loss Oregon team that did…when they both lost to the same top ranked team?

Oregon’s argument could be very strong if they have to beat three more ranked teams to win the Pac 12.

There could be some controversy to be sure.

However, what’s still most likely to happen is that the committee sends two Big Ten teams to battle two SEC teams in a preview of what we’ll be getting regularly when both blossom into Super Conferences in the near future. The AFC and NFC of college football who that run the sport.

Ohio State and Michigan, both undefeated and ranked in the top five, meet at the end of the regular season. Let’s say the Buckeyes emerge the winner. They then go on to pummel the Big Ten West winner – probably Illinois – to secure their top two ranking. Meanwhile, the Wolverines do exactly what Tennessee does – kick back and watch on Championship Saturday. They too, finish with a single loss (to the second ranked team) and a top four ranking.

That leaves the committee with a top four comprised of two SEC teams and two Big Ten teams, and we get #1 Georgia v #4 Michigan and #2 Ohio State v #3 Tennessee. TCU and Oregon on the outside, faces pressed against the glass, wishing they could get in.

It would be a microcosm of the immediate future of the entire sport.