September 5, 2023 By: Mark Knudson

Washington State and Oregon State might be in the best position of all

Not much about College Football is predictable these days, on or off the field. You can’t tell the conferences without a scorecard.

But if you’re looking to make a safe bet, put some money down on this: The 2024 Pac-12 Championship Game match up will be Washington State vs. Oregon State.

Book it.

After everything that’s happened recently, that sounds stupid on the surface. Most believe there won’t be a Pac 12 conference after this season, meaning their won’t be a title game in 2024. Washington State and Oregon State got left in the lurch, right?

Not so fast my friends.

Even after all their conference brethren deserted them for greener pastures – USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington moving to the Big 10 (20), Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State bolting for the Big 12 (16) and Cal and Stanford making the ludicrous decision to play in the ACC – the Cougars and the Beavers don’t have to move for two more years, according to the Pac 12 contract. Yes, by rule conferences need to have at least eight members, but in this case, that rule doesn’t kick in until 2026.

So yes, they could play the next two seasons as the Pac 2.

Really.

Which means a rematch in the conference title game is inevitable.

Is this really what’s going to happen?

The Pac 12 doesn’t have a media rights deal for 2024 and 2025, so first, the two schools will have to negotiate their own two-year deal with a local broadcast outlet. That’s certainly not going to provide them with enough revenue to sustain their programs.

But add in a gigantic guarantee from the College Football Playoff, and it just might be more than enough.

You see, the winner of the 2024 Pac 12 title game is guaranteed a spot in the expanded 12-team playoff field. You think getting $31 mil per Power Five conference school for media rights is a windfall? Take a look at the projected revenue for each conference AND each participant in the new 12-team format.

Experts predict the expanded playoff will bring in at least $2 billion – with a B – in revenue. Under the current arrangement, each Power Five league gets $67 million guaranteed to be shared among members, PLUS $6 million to each playoff participant.

Expect those numbers to at least triple, experts say.

So…if the Beavers and the Cougars can each win six games – and scheduling will be the most difficult part of staying put for the next two years – their “conference” and their conference champ are going to get enormous windfalls from the CFP.

If you were in their cleats, what would you do?

All this time we’ve thought that poor Wazzu and OSU were being left behind. But they might be in the best position of all. They could negotiate with the Mountain West, for instance, for some “non-conference” games and include a nice phat scheduling bonus paid to that league’s members at the end of the year. They’d be able to afford it.

And ahead of the 2026 season, they could negotiate to join forces with the MW and form a new Power Five conference…provided there are still college football conferences by then. Stay tuned on that.

What’s most likely to happen is some sort of negotiated settlement for the two schools that’s unlikely to give the Pac 2 that full and equal share, but should provide them a nice financial bonus and even access to a playoff spot in some manner. It’d be great if that agreement allowed for the top teams in the Mountain West to be part of it as well. We’ll see.

Again, all we really know is that we have no idea what’s going to happen. But in a world where money rules everything, expecting these two schools, left on an island through no fault of their own, to simply punt and join a Group of Five conference when they’re in position to get the biggest payout of all? That’s not a good bet.