Since Major League Baseball announced its return to play, Colorado Rockies General Manager Jeff Bridich has been aggressive in trying to make his team a contender in the National League West.
Through the first two weeks of the abbreviated season, they certainly have been. But Bridich still needs to keep his foot on that gas pedal.
Whether or not Colorado can continue to stay in the playoff chase may be contingent on the Rockies ability to find a new and dependable closer. After losing Scott Oberg to a season (possibly career) ending injury, and watching high priced vet Wade Davis implode, the Rockies know they have an issue at the back end of the ‘pen. There are several candidates for the role, and they’ve managed to get by to this point. Still, thus far, no single pitcher has provided a clear cut answer to the question: Who can Colorado count on to successfully close out close victories the rest of the way?
The answer may be hiding in plain sight.
How about this name: Jon Gray.
Bear with me for a minute.
A former first round draft pick, Gray has been a mainstay in the Colorado starting rotation since 2016. He was a huge part of the 2017 post-season run, starting the wild card playoff game at Arizona. While he struggled in 2018, Gray was one of the few Rockies starting pitchers to have a good 2019, going 11-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 150 strikeouts. So why on earth would the Rockies even consider taking him out of the rotation to make him the closer?
Here’s why: On the plus side, Gray has the demeanor to be a solid – if not outstanding – closer. He’s calm and resilient, and has overcome adversity to remain a Rockies mainstay when it looked like his days in purple pinstripes could be coming to an end. Remember, he wasn’t even on Colorado’s postseason roster in 2018 and yet bounced back the following season. And he’s got that whole “Gray Wolf” persona going for him.
And he certainly has the right stuff. Gray’s 95+ MPH fastball can be overpowering, and his slider can be lethal.
Also factor this in: In his first three starts of 2020, Gray has been perfect through the first two innings. The first time hitters face him (and as a closer they’d only be facing him one time per game) he’s having tremendous success. This has been his pattern. According to Baseball Reference, last season opposing batters hit .228 against Gray the second time they faced him in a game. But that average ballooned to .315 the third time through the order. Same with Slugging Percentage, which jumps from .365 to .586, and OPS, which goes from .672 to .946 after opposing hitters have already seen him twice in a game.
Gray’s Earned Run Average in the 6th inning of games, when he’s typically facing a line-up for the third time, was an unsightly 5.60.
Things have not changed this season. In his first three starts, after those first two perfect innings, Gray has not been the same pitcher. In his other 10 1/3 innings, Gray’s given up 12 hits and eight runs.
In other words, Gray can be truly dominant when he only faces a hitter once in a game…but he’s proven to be pretty ordinary after that.
Making a successful starter into a successful reliever isn’t all that common, but it has been done. The most famous cases are Hall of Famer’s Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz. It’s Smoltz who provides the best blueprint for a potential Gray switch. The eight-time All-Star was a Cy Young winner as a starter in 1996 on his way to recording 213 career wins.
But faced with a need in the Atlanta Braves bullpen late in the 2001 season, Smoltz volunteered to make the switch. He ended up becoming a dominant closer too, recording 55 saves in 2002, winning the Relief man of the Year award and finishing third in the Cy Young voting. Before rejoining the Braves starting rotation in 2005 (and making the NL All-Star team) Smoltz racked up 154 career saves.
No, Gray is not John Smoltz. And no one is expecting him to match those statistics. Yet based on what we’ve seen from him thus far in his career, there’s should be little doubt that Gray could handle a similar move and potentially become very successful at it.
The real issue is who could capably replace Gray in the Rockies starting rotation, which also needs a fifth starter. Internal candidates won’t be enough. Chi Chi Gonzalez got the first crack at the fifth starter spot, but then landed on the injured list. Young rookie Ryan Castelliani replaced him and made his first start at Seattle, throwing four hitless innings in his first game action in almost a year. He could definitely fill one of the two spots but needs to build up arm strength and durability. Jeff Hoffman hasn’t been very good as a starter previously, but so far this season has provided some solid middle relief. Ashton Goudeau is a ‘maybe’ prospect who just got sent down, and young lefty Ryan Rolison has a very bright future but lacks experience. He won’t be a big leaguer this season.
So help is still needed. Switching Gray to the ‘pen would put the onus back on Bridich to make a splash starting pitcher acquisition before the trade deadline on August 31st. Just guessing here, but would the lowly Kansas City Royals part with say, solid lefty Danny Duffy? Or perhaps the San Francisco Giants – who are years away from competing for the postseason – would consider trading local product Kevin Gausman to Colorado? The Grandview graduate looked pretty darn good at Coors Field when he faced the Rockies last week. All said, there should be someone available before the deadline that could fit into the Rockies rotation.
Thinking more conventionally, Bridich will likely be trying to trade for a top tier reliever before the end of the month. Those aren’t any easier to find than quality starters. So why not be bold, and make a move that makes perfect sense – and let the Gray Wolf howl more than once every five days?
Listen to Mark Knudson on Monday’s at 12:30 with Brady Hull on AM 1310 KFKA and on Saturday mornings on “Klahr and Kompany” on AM 1600 ESPN Denver.
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