Woody Paige: Mahomes, Chiefs will thrive in Super Bowl LIV

On Groundhog Day the Chiefs will not be scared by the shadowing 49ers.

K.C. and the Sunshine Band will defeat the 49ers 27-23 in Super Bowl LIV.

After suffering through 49 years of winters of discontent, the Chiefs finally win again.

Andy Reid celebrates.

But not Punxsutawney Phil or San Francisco Kyle.

This is a tough call for Las Vegas (-1.5 Kansas City favorite), prognosticators and me.

The over-under on the game is 54.5 total points.

The game is in Florida. My pick has been in the state of flux. I’ve wavered between the 49ers and the Chiefs for more than a week for a myriad of reasons, but ultimately settled on Kansas City for obvious reasons – a tumultuous offense, Patrick Mahomes and the team’s desire to get Andy Reid a championship.

The Chiefs will score three touchdowns and kick two field goals, and the 49ers will end up with two touchdowns and three field goals.

Neither team will score 51 points, as the Chief did in the playoffs against the Texans in a second-half comeback and decimation, or hold the opposition to 10 points, as the 49ers did against the Vikings.

The Super Bowl will be this close.

But, honestly, who can bet against Mahomes? In the regular season he produced a Patrick Hat Trick (at least three touchdowns) seven times, and he has thrown for eight touchdowns in two playoff games.

The Chiefs were fifth in passing in the NFL in the regular season, and the 49ers finished 13^th overall.

The 49ers were decidedly superior in rushing, ranking second while Kansas City was 23^rd.

And in points averaged per game, the 49ers barely edged out the Chiefs 29.9-28.2.

So, the game certainly could go the 49ers’ way, but Jimmy Garoppolo will have to come up extra large. He was No. 10 among league passers in the regular season, while Mahomes ended up second. Garoppolo can’t, though, rarely pass again in the postseason.

Who would you rather have – Travis Kelce or George Kittle? Both are All-Pro tight ends, but Kelce has been first at his position in the playoffs and Kittle 16^th (primarily because the 49ers have run the football early and often and mostly.)

In the Special Ks comparison, Kelce will score twice and Kittle once.

Then, there’s Tyreek Hill.

Reid is sixth all-time among NFL coaches in victories, but he’s reached only one Super Bowl and lost to the Patriots. The Man in the Tommy Bahama shirt needs at least one Super Bowl title to have a chance at the Hall of Fame.

Kyle Shanahan is trying to get past the stain of being the offensive coordinator during the late Super Bowl meltdown by the Falcons when the Patriots rallied from a 28-3 deficit.

But Shanahan, as he points out, was on the sideline in a Super Bowl championship. He was the “cord boy’’ for father Mike when the Broncos beat the Packers in No. 32. Son trailed father throughout the game carrying the cable for the coach’s headset. “I was the last cord boy on a winning team in the Super Bowl,’’ he says. “The next year the head coaches changed to wireless headsets.’’

He does have a minutiae moment.

Considering that Mike Shanahan has been the mastermind behind the curtain for Kyle (offering critiques, suggestions and gameplan ideas) and the 49ers are utilizing schemes and formations, and motion in the backfield, as Mike did when he was the coordinator of the 49ers’ last championship and then as the head coach of the Broncos’ first two championships, the 49ers are not going to be out-masterminded.

But I keep returning to Mahomes.

I’ve covered more than 40 Super Bowls since the 1970s, and I can remember all the winning quarterbacks, including John Elway (twice) and Peyton Manning (once) with the Broncos. In 53 previous games, 29 quarterbacks were named the Most Valuable Player.

One was Mark Rypien, whose nephew is a backup quarterback for the Broncos. Two were brothers – Peyton and Eli (twice) Manning.

The first MVP QB I witnessed was Roger Staubach in S.B. VI, and I saw Joe Montana win the trophy in three Super Bowls.

G.O.A.T. Tom Brady is a four-time MVP.

Mahomes joins the list of MVPs on Sunday.

The 49ers have proven to be groundhogs with their rushing offense, but the Chiefs have the Patrick attack.

The Shadow knows.